Everyone's Playing Offense Now, and Nobody Has a Playbook

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We’re in one of those moments where you don’t know whether to laugh or start a doomsday countdown.

Trump just went after Pope Leo. The actual Pope. Not in some subtle policy disagreement, but a full social media broadside about him being “too liberal” and “weak on crime.” Meanwhile, Starmer’s begging the US and Iran not to escalate after peace talks collapsed. The UK just shelved a Chagos Islands deal because Trump opposed it. China and Russia are in an AI arms race with the US that’s being compared to the nuclear weapons dawn. And somehow, deep-fried food bans in British schools made the same news cycle as all of this.

You can’t make this up. Well, Trump can, and he did.

What we’re watching is a complete breakdown in the old rules of international engagement. Leaders used to have lines. Untouchable institutions, diplomatic norms, the kind of stuff that kept things from spiraling. Those lines are getting spray-painted over in real time.

Photo by Juliano Astc / Pexels

The Trump Effect Is Now Global Policy

Here’s the thing that keeps me up: Trump isn’t just setting American foreign policy anymore. He’s resetting everyone else’s.

The UK government literally shelved a deal because Trump said no. Not because it lost a parliamentary vote. Not because British public opinion shifted. Because the incoming US president tweeted his opposition. Starmer’s government looked at months of negotiations over the Chagos Islands—a genuine sovereignty and strategic issue—and decided it wasn’t worth the fight with Mar-a-Lago.

That’s not diplomacy. That’s appeasement, dressed up in administrative language.

And it’s working, which is the terrifying part. When you can move a major ally’s foreign policy with a social media post, you’ve broken something fundamental. Starmer is now in the position of basically pleading with the US and Iran not to blow up the Middle East. He’s not negotiating. He’s not mediating from a position of strength. He’s… urging. Hoping. Trying to talk two people off a ledge while standing on the ground below them.

The Iran-US situation shows what happens when normal diplomatic channels freeze up. Peace talks falter. Both sides start preparing for the worst-case scenario. Starmer’s “find a way through” plea is what you hear when institutions have already failed and you’re down to emotional appeals.

The AI Cold War Nobody Voted For

Let’s talk about the other existential thing that got buried under the Pope news: we’re in a full-scale AI arms race now, and it’s being compared to the nuclear weapons era.

I get why that headline landed quietly. It’s abstract. No daily body count. No visible explosions. Just China, Russia, and the US pouring resources into AI-backed weapons systems and military applications. But think about what that comparison actually means. The nuclear arms race gave us decades of proxy wars, Cuban Missile Crisis moments, the constant hum of doomsday anxiety. We eventually got treaties. Arms control agreements. Verification protocols.

We don’t have any of that for AI yet. We’re sprinting toward the scariest technological frontier we’ve ever faced without guard rails, with three major powers who fundamentally don’t trust each other.

And Trump’s administration? I’ll be shocked—genuinely shocked—if they prioritize international AI arms control agreements. That’s not the Trump playbook.

Photo by Anna Keibalo / Pexels

The GOP’s Gas Price Problem Is Actually Trump’s Problem

Here’s a specific tell that things are getting messy: Trump just admitted—out loud, on the record—that gas prices might not drop by the midterms.

This is a self-inflicted wound. Trump campaigned on bringing energy costs down. Republicans are already nervous about 2026. And their guy just signaled that their main economic talking point might evaporate. Some GOP figures are getting “fresh concern” about his comments.

That’s what happens when you make big promises and then reality shows up with a different script. Oil markets don’t care about campaign pledges. OPEC doesn’t check Trump’s approval ratings before setting production. But voters will definitely notice if they’re still paying $3.50 a gallon when midterms roll around.

The Scottish Independence Play Nobody’s Focused On Yet

Swinney’s announcement that a Scottish independence referendum could happen in 2028 is being treated like local news. It’s not.

If Scotland votes for independence in 2028, you’re looking at the potential dissolution of the United Kingdom as a political entity. Not metaphorically. Actually. Starmer would be prime minister of a fragmenting country while simultaneously trying to manage Trump on Iran, navigate the AI arms race, and deal with the fallout from shelving the Chagos deal.

2028 is closer than it feels. That referendum timeline isn’t abstract—it’s a countdown clock on the UK itself. And it’s happening while everything else is chaos.

What This Adds Up To

My read: we’re watching the transition from a rules-based international order to something much more ad-hoc and personality-driven. Trump’s not working within institutions he didn’t build. He’s bulldozing them. Starmer’s scrambling to keep old relationships functional while the ground shifts. Swinney sees an opening and he’s taking it.

The schools are banning deep-fried food. The Pope is getting dunked on online. The “Real Housewives” visited Congress and apparently Congress looked like reality TV (shocking, I know). Meanwhile, AI weapons systems are proliferating, Iran and the US are eyeballing each other, and Trump’s already proven he’ll abandon a close ally’s deal if he feels like it.

This is what it looks like when everyone’s playing offense and nobody has a shared playbook anymore.

I think this accelerates. Swinney moves on the referendum timeline. The US-Iran situation either calms down or doesn’t, but either way, Starmer’s in a weaker position than he was last month. The AI arms race gets real in ways that should terrify everyone but probably won’t until something breaks. And Trump keeps testing boundaries because nobody’s found one that actually stops him yet.

The Pope post was a tell. He attacked the leader of 1.4 billion Catholics because he could. Because there’s no consequence he cares about. That’s not just style. That’s what happens when someone’s genuinely unmoored from institutional constraint.

The next 18 months are going to be violent. Politically, diplomatically, economically. Not all at once. But constantly. Like watching someone juggle chainsaws and pretend it’s fine.

What I’m Watching

• The Chagos deal resurrection attempt by April. If Starmer tries to revive it after Trump’s opposition dies down, that’s a sign he still thinks he has diplomatic independence. If he doesn’t, it’s confirmation that major UK policy is now made in Mar-a-Lago. Watch for any quiet reopening of negotiations.

• Iran escalation before Q2 2025 earnings season. Markets hate uncertainty. If the US-Iran situation actually deteriorates militarily, oil spikes and everything else breaks. Starmer’s pleas only matter if they’re heard. Watch for any Iranian military movements or US carrier group repositioning.

• Scottish referendum legislation tabled before 2027. Swinney’s timeline only matters if he actually moves. If SNP legislation hits Parliament within the next 18 months, independence is real and imminent. If it stalls, it’s just talk.

• Trump’s first AI arms control proposal (or non-proposal). By Q3 2025, we’ll know if the administration even considers international AI treaties. The absence of one would be as telling as the presence. Either way, that’s your signal for how serious this arms race is about spiraling.