Oil Crashes, Netflix Stumbles, and the Market's Iran Problem Just Got Real

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The Strait of Hormuz just opened. Oil dropped 10%. Netflix tanked on earnings. And somewhere on Capitol Hill, a congressman is asking very uncomfortable questions about who made money when it all went sideways.

This is what happens when you bake geopolitics into your portfolio allocation without paying attention.

The Oil Story Everyone’s Getting Wrong

Let’s start with what we know: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping after what looks like a ceasefire deal involving Lebanon. Oil prices responded by collapsing more than 10%. On the surface, this makes sense—supply fears ease, prices fall. Textbook.

Except there’s a detail that keeps me awake at night.

The U.S. says the blockade is still active. Trump’s administration claims they’re maintaining some kind of chokehold on Iranian shipping. Iran says the strait’s open. These two things can’t both be true for long, and the market hasn’t figured out which version will actually win.

Photo by Jakub Zerdzicki / Pexels

Here’s what happened before this: oil traders made a spectacular amount of money during the Iran war escalation. So spectacular that House Democrat Sam Liccardo is now investigating. “Well-timed trades” is the polite way to say someone probably knew something, and the timing was too convenient. When a congressman starts poking around, you can usually bet there’s real smoke.

I don’t know if there was fire. Nobody outside the situation room does. But what I do know is this: the energy market just realized it can’t trust the information it’s been using to price crude. That’s dangerous.

Netflix’s Earnings Miss Is a Strategy Shift, Not a Disaster

Netflix reported earnings and the stock got hammered. That’s the headline. But here’s what matters: Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos basically admitted the company’s playbook just changed.

For years, Netflix was “a builder not a buyer.” They made shows in-house, they grew organically, they let competitors stumble over themselves chasing scale. It was arrogant and it mostly worked.

Now? Sarandos said they’ve built their “M&A muscle” and they’re actively hunting for assets. They chased WBD’s stuff. They’re looking around the room at what else might be for sale.

This is what a company does when it realizes it can’t grow fast enough organically. It’s not a death knell. It’s a pivot. But it’s also an admission that the streaming wars are entering a different phase—the consolidation phase. That’s expensive. Acquisitions are messier than content spending. Synergies don’t materialize on schedule.

My take: the market’s overreacting to the earnings miss. What matters is whether Netflix can actually execute acquisitions without destroying shareholder value. They haven’t proven they can yet.

Photo by Markus Spiske / Pexels

Texas Pacific Land Is Still Winning, But Why?

While we’re all watching Netflix and freaking out about oil, Texas Pacific Land (TPL) has quietly returned 148% over five years. In the last six months alone, it’s up 36.4%—beating the S&P 500 by 31%.

Since April 2021, the S&P 500 has returned 68.6%. TPL has more than doubled that. These aren’t rounding errors.

Why? Because TPL owns land. When energy gets volatile, when geopolitics matter, when supply chains need rethinking—land gets expensive. Especially Texas land, especially land with mineral rights. TPL benefits from every single energy shock without having to actually pump anything or negotiate with foreign governments.

It’s the ultimate “I don’t want to be wrong about Iran, so I’ll just own the real estate” play.

The Meme Stock Phenomenon Is Real, Even If We Don’t Want to Admit It

Middle Coast Investing just released a Q1 2026 letter that explicitly discusses how memes—in the Richard Dawkins sense—are shaping stock market behavior. They’re looking at positions like Duolingo and Standard Aero through this lens. The letter explores how concepts like AI and LLMs function as memes in the market, spreading through culture and moving capital.

I’m going to be honest: this is the kind of thinking that usually gets dismissed as too clever by half. But they’re onto something real.

Duolingo isn’t a stock that trades on fundamental metrics the way it used to. It’s a cultural meme. It’s everywhere—the owl mascot, the viral marketing, the sense that you should be learning languages. That memetic power drives buyers regardless of what the DCF model says.

Same with AI stocks generally. The meme is that AI changes everything. Whether it actually does is almost secondary to the fact that everyone believes it will.

This matters because memes are contagious but they’re also fragile. They collapse when the cultural moment passes. I’d be watching Duolingo very closely for signs that the meme is weakening—slower user growth, declining engagement metrics, the viral moment fading.

Here’s Where My Conviction Gets Shaky

I’m genuinely uncertain about one thing: whether the Strait of Hormuz actually stays open, and what happens to oil if it doesn’t.

If Trump and Iran are bluffing each other and it suddenly slams shut again, we could see a 15-20% oil spike in a matter of hours. That would roil everything from airlines to inflation expectations to the Fed’s calculus on interest rates. I don’t know how to handicap the probability here because I don’t have access to what either side is actually willing to do.

What I do know is that energy traders are probably positioning for that scenario right now. The 10% drop is too easy. The real money might be in being short oil here and long it again at $95 if the blockade re-tightens.

Photo by Markus Spiske / Pexels

The Tech Lobbying Surge Isn’t Random

U.S. tech companies are ramping up government lobbying amid Iran war uncertainty. The White House is working with them to “mitigate disruption.”

Translation: tech supply chains are more fragile than anyone wants to admit, and when geopolitics gets real, the industry gets nervous. They’re not lobbying because they care about Middle East peace. They’re lobbying because they need reliable supply lines.

This matters for chip stocks, cloud stocks, semiconductor plays—anything that depends on consistent, uninterrupted global commerce. If the Middle East situation deteriorates instead of stabilizes, you’re going to see IT capex plans revised downward across the board.

What I’m Watching

Oil price action vs. U.S./Iran rhetoric. If the Strait of Hormuz actually remains contested—with Trump claiming blockade and Iran claiming it’s open—we’re in for serious volatility. Watch for WTI crude to either stabilize above $75 or spike past $95. Either way, energy stocks and inflation-sensitive plays will re-price fast. The next two weeks are critical.

Netflix’s M&A execution. Did they actually close anything beyond conversations with WBD? Watch quarterly reports for acquisition announcements or write-downs on failed deals. If they’re spending billions and integration goes sideways, this stock has 20% downside. If they actually integrate thoughtfully, they might deserve this valuation again.

Middle Coast Investing’s next move. Their Q1 letter is explicitly thinking about “meme dynamics” in stock selection. Watch whether they’re rotating out of positions like Duolingo if growth metrics weaken. If a serious money manager starts publicly abandoning a meme-driven position, that’s a sell signal for everyone else who’s been assuming the trend continues forever.

Congressional investigation outcome on oil trading. Liccardo’s probe won’t move markets directly, but it might reveal who had information asymmetry during the escalation. If anyone major got subpoenaed or if actual wrongdoing surfaces, regulatory crackdown on energy trading could follow—and that changes how volatility gets priced going forward.

The market’s acting like everything’s fine and the ceasefire is permanent. I’d bet against that consensus. These situations are usually more fragile than they look.